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| Credits - https://travel.jumia.com/ |
Recently, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala succinctly described the mood of the current economy when he said - Nifty is touching all time high, but all the pubs are empty!
Mass plant shutdowns (in auto sector), auto dealers shutting down their shops, FMCG slowdown, pharma facing adulteration issues, NBFCs rockstars asking for "first 10% loss should be borne by the Govt" - its gloomy. The govt, seems to be interested in raising taxes upwards. The industry concalls do not give any idea why this degrowth is happening or when the things will rebound.
In this gloom and doom, I think food sector is the only oasis. Q4Fy19 results also points out that only the food segments did well - when even FMCG was getting butchered.
Overall, blood-on-streets season continues, THINK and do whatever best u can!
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Last year, around september, when NBFC crises began to emerge, many people had multiple issues with MFI/SFBs. Common narrative was - ".. but what if xyz happens". Thats the nature of narrative. Most of narrators dont have skin in the game - and wont ever have, as they are not trained for decision making in stressful times. And its not their own money - so, safety aka no-volatility-of-stock-prices is desired. During such times, the best thing for a person knowledgeable about a industry, is to buy more and more. Same happened in Sugar sector last year, when there was zero visibility - and now suddenly the story seems to have become tad optimistic.
As a rough guide,
Find them. Copy them.
-- End --
Mass plant shutdowns (in auto sector), auto dealers shutting down their shops, FMCG slowdown, pharma facing adulteration issues, NBFCs rockstars asking for "first 10% loss should be borne by the Govt" - its gloomy. The govt, seems to be interested in raising taxes upwards. The industry concalls do not give any idea why this degrowth is happening or when the things will rebound.
In this gloom and doom, I think food sector is the only oasis. Q4Fy19 results also points out that only the food segments did well - when even FMCG was getting butchered.
Overall, blood-on-streets season continues, THINK and do whatever best u can!
--
Last year, around september, when NBFC crises began to emerge, many people had multiple issues with MFI/SFBs. Common narrative was - ".. but what if xyz happens". Thats the nature of narrative. Most of narrators dont have skin in the game - and wont ever have, as they are not trained for decision making in stressful times. And its not their own money - so, safety aka no-volatility-of-stock-prices is desired. During such times, the best thing for a person knowledgeable about a industry, is to buy more and more. Same happened in Sugar sector last year, when there was zero visibility - and now suddenly the story seems to have become tad optimistic.
As a rough guide,
- I have learnt that PRIVATE INVESTORS (putting their own money to work AND having no other commercial product to sell to investors) act and think like smart businessmen.
- They put in their own money behind their opinions. (Just let this thought sink in, as there is no other bigger accolade than this!)
- They are not answerable to anyone, except themselves. This looks mundane, but relieving your brainpower by NOT answering to everyone's common over-heard narratives/emotional swings/greed/fear/drama, is a superpower. In super emotive markets, weeding off emotionally-moody and weak is the best thing to do.
- They dont worry about price fluctuations - and they think about stocks like businesses to be acquired, to be run, over decades. This viewpoint itself makes buying during volatility easier.
- Willingness to put in one's money, leads to through research, which leads to conviction, concentration and patience
- They are temperamentally most stable people - not looking for small adventures/engagements/entertainment or small wins to feel good. This also reflects in the fact that they can bet big when the opportunity arises, as they can buy for years, without worrying for a quick exit.
- They are conservative - after all its their own money. Longevity and survival is important than winning annual marketing games.
- There is lack of involvement into other entertaining options like futures/options or smart quick money making deals.
- They understand power of focus. They understand not getting involved into other commercial businesses.
Find them. Copy them.
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