The hawks
are making lazy circles as they are in the uplifting convection thermals.
The FMCG player had seen a radical shift in the power equation in last few months. Few more competitors died. Many refused to participate in crop buying, as the prices fell down and overleveraged traders exited. Lower prices, and higher volumes, is good news. The company was able to grow its dominance - both at the retail end, by expanding network, and at procurement end, by procuring more and by being a ready buyer. Goodwill in community has also increased.
The wind energy sector is also facing tailwinds. Govt's concessions are helping the industry. But the rest of infra capex is still languishing. The hopes of industry are kicked down the timeline - from end-of-fy15 to H2-of-fy16 to now, maybe-fy17. Overall, volumes are slowing in many industries and we will see negative surprises. The hope-bubble is punchering as industries arn’t seeing much kickstarting on the ground.
SEBs (state
electricity boards) position hasn’t improved as expected. The new government
claims that the 2012 FRP (Financial restructuring package) has failed. The losses
of SEBs have grown. States like Rajasthan have again approached banks for
another loan restructuring. Many guys have not increased power rates as
promised in FRP. Without strong political will, conditions in
power-distribution are very poor and slow.
The exuberance of last few months OND & JFM has come down in many sectors.
Good things – India is still being
considered as better off in the indebted world. The crude, commodities and mass-market are on our side. And the Indian retail investor is
waking up. The capital flows from the Indian retail have jumped sharply, and
this looks like to be a year with highest retail participation coming up.
General et al - Overall, the general environ looks very chaotic today. Govt infights, regulatory indecisions, scams, pollutions, rising population in few metros, adulteration, lawlessness looks common in public affairs. Hats off to the entreprenuers who are still growing in such environs. Hope things smoothen.
