Friday, July 11, 2014

H1 CY14 - Clear Views






In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield - Warren Buffett


In hindsight, it’s clear that the pessimism of july-13 was undue and exaggerated (It looks too easy today, but it could have continued had India not got full majority). Equally true would be the clarity and hope with which many local businessmen are viewing the windshield. With the clear majority at center (government), functioning and policy making, which went in topsy-turvy in last few years, should be a low hanging fruit for the new Government. Hopes are high and with clear majority at center, the runway is clear now. 

Presently, most of the clueless retail investors, who didn’t make money since 2008, are desperately washing off their hands off the stocks! Domestic investment institutions are facing redemptions - and are biggest sellers (and losers) in the markets. Read this interesting article by another fund manager Samir Arora, on money flow into markets. The big gainers in the markets have been FIIs and HNIs, who added when the markets were down, and had been consistent buyers during last one year! With such immense optimism (read this), it is folly of common investors not to participate in the growth now! With such a clear majority, growth-oriented budget and low hanging fruits, environment cannot be more perfect for India to do well in coming years. 
  
Portfolio.
WE are staying put with larger part of the compounding portfolio. With compounding happening, growth visible and low valuations, I think we are at 50cents to a dollar value presently. We have liquidated tiny part, which was of slow moving/headwind-facing companies. Will keep this cash handy for use during short term fluctuations. In case you need to understand about specifics, please feel free to talk. 

Etc...
I was invited to deliver a talk at CFA institute - New Delhi. You may watch the video here or read the text here