Notes to myself
- Its not easy. It looks simple to talk about 2 stocks, but the work needed to filter AND hold is not easy process.
- Most people are not fit to be in markets, which is good for us, those who want to be in market. Most want FD returns - we want non linear returns. If we want 5x, we need to train our minds to bear 1/5x also - and take decisions when 1/5 comes! Without discipline + training + validating the thesis, it wont happen!
- 2-4 best ideas in PF are enough! If 1 goes kaput, other 2-3 will ensure adequate returns.
- And its not a finance game. Its a psychological war.
- Decisions become difficult to make at every successive price point.
- ROE x Reinvestment opportunity within business (aka headroom for growth) x compounding timeframe is only truth which works.
- When Tsunami is coming, dont stand dreaming with a cup.
- Follow the known money making mentors - not unknown advertisers!
Updates
The 2-horse cart is working on full horse power. Somethings have got preponed, somethings delayed naturally. But overall results are joyful. Allocations are perfect.
Returns are joyful chiefly due to timely decision to buy NewCos which we were studying for last 4yrs + preponement of govt policy + some global lucky events + *courage* to invest more capital when there was blood.
Rice updates - it did very well in last 2-3yrs despite what ticker tape shows-
- There was a crash in crop prices by 8-10rs in last 2 seasons, which is equivalent to 500c-600c shortfall in profits
- India's most important trading partner, Iran is out of market as its debarred from buying
- Onslaught of cases after cases (2 battles won, 1 left) - Insignificant useless noise IMO.
- The way they performed in q4, when one director was imprisoned is commendable. They sowed the seeds for the next yr very very well.
- In between, Crona and employee/logistical issues
Its facing troubles just like ALIBABA where biz is excellent/growing/moat increasing, but company is facing resistance from someone unnamed. They r doers, and winners. Underlying compounding is working well. Under such circumstances, mgmt has done very well and is entitled to my appreciation. (This is not to say that we wont sell off or change allocation when right time/opportunity appears)
Reading Nick Sleep and Thomas Phelps, sitting on lazyboy armchair is AC room or watching Munger buy struggling ALIBABA is orgasmic - but operating with same mindset, when decision making needs to be executed in portfolio, is something else!
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Hopefully, tsunami is coming in all assets. More later.
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Etc
I got to know about divorce of a friend. Being along with a tantrum throwing old-toddler doesn't yield anything in the end. So cut off ALL obnoxious people early - stay with peaceful, easy, light, happy go getters, believers, who produce and share generously and live harmoniously. This is more important that making money in the end!
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